Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
