A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
